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If the historical data used involve other time series that are believed to be related to the time series that we are trying to forecast, the procedure is called a causal method. | "S" """" "" H  0޽h ? 3" 0N0 og (     x(hV0e0e ?Rectangle 2"PK!Zf[Content_Types].xmlMO &2WR=cJ`F0iK`#̼vLw 9uSq:w`G ^i ½KI)c/ $oVjTMRc|}042ҥCƔM̏P~*ka/8^DkHbL8e i"K\XN\6rco4y@_;oPK!1_a _rels/.relsj0 ѽqCNo^K [ILcX&m߾0XFo;>0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WBLǬ5vPK!W=Adrs/shapexml.xmlUQo8 ~?C453rw@Pq=,^dI4'= ["EGӡUl/o1gR S6zϏˋ@$eQziv-3:;eKR2mGI/u@MQKs<](ڱD.+4Ild>zB+#v~HK2gT&\"٘0Hqs湖TRYk$5 G|Cfzsu=08xG姺ޔ- _zRj^8{vSjTss9!)(8]0*ACZՌ8EaZKas+i:_YE $5Y h!{n!G7AADW#PKnʆI"O"-+aUꑊe>z{I+}v p [=\% ^wZ$&x"QVE`{ǿ<xfq/m_ nn![tI\L}i46qh@v׵Mk6=8R_|αx Voe\#DXa ɓN:{G`'הj^?Ix&.tvTImX(I靘f(3j11/Ќ7fJ1].gVmh$geg`&}Yϰ4Q(pz;֛JbZEcw:4X#&zImhYՒ|j^HL.q= œ===x~~F8Hv5!z;PK!p"!drs/downrev.xmlDOO@G&~͘x-,LE% ; ۻɛ_|9^β$A\Yq{deRp!3m\Щ *hC2)}ՒA?qduC<]#s^Β$; -Ru,~\~!/>\q "z[_]ǖ,MAot>Sbm PK-!Zf[Content_Types].xmlPK-!1_a /_rels/.relsPK-!W=A*drs/shapexml.xmlPK-!p"!drs/downrev.xmlPK `}  Y eTime Series Methods  e     x Y0e0e ?Rectangle 3"e_PK!Zf[Content_Types].xmlMO &2WR=cJ`F0iK`#̼vLw 9uSq:w`G ^i ½KI)c/ $oVjTMRc|}042ҥCƔM̏P~*ka/8^DkHbL8e i"K\XN\6rco4y@_;oPK!1_a _rels/.relsj0 ѽqCNo^K [ILcX&m߾0XFo;>0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WBLǬ5vPK!7Sdrs/shapexml.xmlW[k#7~/?Wb/!m,&β49:1ijșBB-' 8rJco/ǍK6),3[nV:pTF7 k>Uz,Vɧ²<V?Lnek%Y7jh"cn׀IxD/p0m~f7ycyH::FxĪ%PLzn{Qʸ9Vb}f^2ѰDG21{Np@ GA(#r.PXO2ZͣB>qh5%h#\mrf &+hg]aBSZT:lE'xLg;AkSwݹƭ.uA'UqKЫj0pO$6*IgU-NGh)DI(#ge͝(rE~$od 2xuT Q AHb~ʾy~1E2"KJԽ = H"IaQ&cN L+xh!< bxg'}O2@2["4,]9PK!2drs/downrev.xmlDN@EM͐&[0RRYAuwN|ə3w'vVp [8]RGt3"ZB3vK],KlPAcI k2;8o0K=Yn9J4X[^eE(hn/sw*ioJ]=H]z')Esp4NA/{_-H^q-SPK-!Zf[Content_Types].xmlPK-!1_a /_rels/.relsPK-!7S*drs/shapexml.xmlPK-!2Mdrs/downrev.xmlPKT Y :Three time series methods are: smoothing trend projection0     ; H  0޽h ? 3" 0N0 @ (       ~HhYxaxa ?Rectangle 2"PK!Zf[Content_Types].xmlMO &2WR=cJ`F0iK`#̼vLw 9uSq:w`G ^i ½KI)c/ $oVjTMRc|}042ҥCƔM̏P~*ka/8^DkHbL8e i"K\XN\6rco4y@_;oPK!1_a _rels/.relsj0 ѽqCNo^K [ILcX&m߾0XFo;>0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WBLǬ5vPK!|=M0drs/shapexml.xmlTKo8 x]vMEbR1I"UrH*bѼy\;t텱V?4LRWf3HU$? ˿?~S3+oĖ~ҽPt7 !P''ˤV9\}ޯʻڰB. g:݈Il`3> !.wvLK2GT&#h7Rqō1TYLBY+$=uCƓUrhlʧTe+{KE}:ί)-tc?Ph٣!`f dP4ظ$ICeN%ũD Bˀ6^3^:Yd.eM%@znkqF8[W6KZyD#pHʆaC<맴 J;c9{xbyxwXŴzPK!H#drs/downrev.xmlDN0HHܨSu+TB>$oxl7MWY'۳}0g0iC#i;Bg ^]^,U݉*ز$P(]Cyh:*܀yb:}˵W$=ͲnЩ76_ ؎2yo=.jzZ87}^ujCy{+"z/& |PK-!Zf[Content_Types].xmlPK-!1_a /_rels/.relsPK-!|=M0*drs/shapexml.xmlPK-!H#drs/downrev.xmlPK `}  Y mComponents of a Time Series  e     ~`mYxaxa ?Rectangle 3"PK!Zf[Content_Types].xmlMO &2WR=cJ`F0iK`#̼vLw 9uSq:w`G ^i ½KI)c/ $oVjTMRc|}042ҥCƔM̏P~*ka/8^DkHbL8e i"K\XN\6rco4y@_;oPK!1_a _rels/.relsj0 ѽqCNo^K [ILcX&m߾0XFo;>0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WBLǬ5vPK!7,+drs/shapexml.xmlXQo"7~`A@!)m%tB!{̮x%_Q˽)=3gPl#ˍOmΤNL}zpЩPF1I?M9r%bF嘯/GKV).3SlV:8PNo"[ͼY%_63tWiQG[]\"$kW;#3/\L3Y4ygyYI:Vpp陼Kb~W˅IwoǼ^!Vbmfz{#F&t/pz@?hkv;8=!SmrSLX=CSr, UXߕ3bvoaPX8誘:c9É SOLȐb)Oo–X41(e0c0iMsCq3%}WpbCXv:]T2f! j,A<{ Y*'^[H1v’pAj,D*lE'\6kӧ.c{4`q-aWkDq<ќ$zR^46jx?_= @H@%ѭ}zEЙJX'~'v06$\GX`b?l]kDMbs]ya#K}uvN]$E5<+'nj3#g'suD_0%d,5& cW"C~*MH;1(qF)q?o#'c+exY 'T^*}a UG"*ES64x'U,dB:\4HM5{n>9mƊǡGx"*F8RNl߲gFDLb=;<`??ΝCt~D`G,0h0|hrEIѕqQr8/4o"F_QDbiPEstGmC.Z2'v `kvxr$IDžk|(?gOCkf)uy1ހ4~tlN D]\K􁜂k#PK-!Zf[Content_Types].xmlPK-!1_a /_rels/.relsPK-!7,+*drs/shapexml.xmlPK-!Nrdrs/downrev.xmlPK' Y aThe trend component accounts for the gradual shifting of the time series over a long period of time. Any regular pattern of sequences of values above and below the trend line is attributable to the cyclical component of the series.H       H  0޽h ? 3" 0N0  `$(  $  $ ltYxaxa1?Rectangle 2"PK!Zf[Content_Types].xmlMO &2WR=cJ`F0iK`#̼vLw 9uSq:w`G ^i ½KI)c/ $oVjTMRc|}042ҥCƔM̏P~*ka/8^DkHbL8e i"K\XN\6rco4y@_;oPK!1_a _rels/.relsj0 ѽqCNo^K [ILcX&m߾0XFo;>0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WBLǬ5vPK!q]drs/shapexml.xmlUn7}/ Z8XU!@6lpw#.%{y(h899yWk+k2L–,3ez3aJK??|S3 fMW!4N+Y 6`S4NziTNvj Qfh掬f*v̈aeK-Yw~i-F0[d3irݮ(=@PNuDh0yF큞ۿm Yr[Uln3%Xb,wXhڨ7"<i蠌;\GLQlf>ةc\{  -] Ӫi]t2t6BHZ\DuQ*{E9r8 ww_Sx\B{ݕh"G圈Z5)!2z ELX)/@GoŅ/0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WBLǬ5vPK!.Fdrs/shapexml.xmlXn6}/ Zd}XeM[[q9$VM*I9vgHI]ik o3Ù?mK6B8|GLTgZїNjYUƥV"vF~c5*VU^Ϧ+QrAWBa-צCUFXwبa+y;RE57K +2`]"xmD K)(5rALkۀ_&3'<~Xa15F,@n=E0LQ[gg+ƩdTTdG9e֠? +DlK~3.K!1^^=,Uƺ߄>#CqdRYGNoA)XHy `O: {߆7]N&.Ӈ'Ā_U2qBhY9Nc ` lG$hpž7%xdWdipN⛏A;Vr3[ =:r#}[ 9&.Z .Hk2bȟyx+1)t{VnUn"]2yRl$բJ y؆^^e  {izjf5$UJ`% nn'ԋ5IC~U")Rg4Bg#V.]=H-Cd7VpWft0xO!i(\ ,JWǑP_xvU/JX ߋZzP x*^#Y" 'ĕs߷{Tar]6X-ܿmˁJuITtXe,y4YAٵyI̚eE l{G3&M3ZT#@ t)Յ=X.+ß9ݱFi&O!U3O'/|i>ߑ5#aMG괃_o| Qӆ我fes!D^8*s\ s!t.sMsV;JS 5 5L3۰Foj} $F*clc gݬWlAsP_{3?PK!,&Sdrs/downrev.xmlDN1&C3$ޤ Ȇb0F=xX۰nZƃ'mvE"cYqp|"1)RvrJ הY¡B]C%eh:fn ŘOJ嶗(EyÁ5×UpNfio\+u;@DsH^unY-%]c\)PK-!Zf[Content_Types].xmlPK-!1_a /_rels/.relsPK-!.F*drs/shapexml.xmlPK-!,&Sdrs/downrev.xmlPK  ^The seasonal component of the series accounts for regular patterns of variability within certain time periods, such as over a year. The irregular component of the series is caused by short-term, unanticipated and non-recurring factors that affect the values of the time series. One cannot attempt to predict its impact on the time series in advance.^_ nK""r"""_ H $ 0޽h ? 3" 0N0 4,((  (5  (  ~Yxaxa ?Rectangle 2"PK!Zf[Content_Types].xmlMO &2WR=cJ`F0iK`#̼vLw 9uSq:w`G ^i ½KI)c/ $oVjTMRc|}042ҥCƔM̏P~*ka/8^DkHbL8e i"K\XN\6rco4y@_;oPK!1_a _rels/.relsj0 ѽqCNo^K [ILcX&m߾0XFo;>0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WBLǬ5vPK!X+74~drs/shapexml.xmlTMo8@HQF"1F`X)z\$RMZr>PP3$gޛyd{alՌ>9*E3qyqÙu Z? ?pNmpXi;st0y%u+|6 9lvarP#jPW}ڮڰ@.(jFHb+AX|gdw) =7y01(e7FZTxW*A B>b"_W;)88x2$?qk6OCi2.K柾М8i*pߌǓ+}(4UzYKޔ"`v83FtUKq<@&C,MSYx4 uMuϸP_S.Ћe͸^M(0>ʷ'>)/Ų~[^Ѓom.m=>OU X-KCl3`"HP>e (0iU0xM e`|X}đ I`߽N4aG2$RKIZ)4(M9`ctB{m:f@`3n|O,ܗr޾jxR0T ,0@}WBLǬ5vPK!ddrs/shapexml.xmlX[O#7~`bs!$"R"j3!x _3cmFZ=O]ΤNL)p{2ySS"|Oĕ M)_y_N:d!'SJ ^fl!GWōQB':垳Hx젝~eBt:*lɈ|g+Q 63)a@F ~gJ^k%A} agS~Nn>$Am%:2@RHT^*}fKU{GhtiNn0P&b'{+ձvL?lC*CB((7շ=>>2ZO+:rqDEsN0> Gb65x@DmN4 7}dfZ@VQ Hu|oNGxhp|&|Q?vz}8ۈb;N9 VYDko"ىd{Pზ W +/PK!Xdrs/downrev.xmlDOK0G!͝Vܮ.H?xiZmݮAޏ\Of[wVB>@mꭖtsr"DgYžWK*ٚEP.ƱD Mdž̍lk75*O$7fYz:ce$Tw/U]ߏChqz1hymnUjY9ڿ^"{ /& PK-!Zf[Content_Types].xmlPK-!1_a /_rels/.relsPK-!d*drs/shapexml.xmlPK-!Xdrs/downrev.xmlPK/ Y Mean Squared Error The average of the squared forecast errors for the historical data is calculated. The forecasting method or parameter(s) which minimize this mean squared error is then selected. Mean Absolute Deviation The mean of the absolute values of all forecast errors is calculated, and the forecasting method or parameter(s) which minimize this measure is selected. 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